Abstract: Several parts of the United Kingdom have experienced highly damaging flooding events in the recent decades, raising doubts on whether methods used to assess flood risk, and therefore design flood defences, are "fit for purpose". It has also been hypothesized that the high number of recent extreme events might be one of the impacts of the (anthropogenic) changes in the climate. Indeed, with the increasing evidence of a changing climate, there is much interest in investigating the potential impacts of these changes on the risks linked to natural hazards such as intense rainfall, extreme waves and flooding. This has resulted in several studies investigating changes in natural hazard extremes, including peak river flow extremes in the UK. This talk will review a selection of these studies, discussing some of the pitfalls of statistical models typically employed to assess whether any change can be detected in peak river flow extremes. Solutions to these pitfalls are outlined and discussed. In particular, the consequences of the functional forms assumed to describe change in extremes on the ability of describing changes in the risk profiles of natural hazards are discussed.
Organiser: Umberto Picchini (email@example.com). Please contact me if you wish to be informed of future seminars.