Following the UN climate warning – what can the world and Sweden do now?

In its Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return, UNEP examines the gap between countries’ climate pledges and the emissions reductions needed to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals. This year’s report explores how the world can limit the extent and duration of warming above 1.5°C and return to that level by the end of the century. This would require both rapid emissions cuts and large-scale removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
 

Globally: Every tenth of a degree matters

Daniel Johansson is a professor in the Division of Physical Resource Theory at Chalmers’ Department of Environmental and Energy Sciences. His research brings together climate science, energy systems modelling and economics. HHe is also a lead author for the forthcoming assessment report of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), contributing to the chapter "Projected Futures in the Context of Sustainable Development and Climate Change".

What does the UN’s finding that global warming is expected to exceed 1.5°C mean – and what is most important to understand about it?

“Exceeding 1.5°C does not mean that the Paris Agreement’s goal becomes meaningless or that it is ‘too late’. The important thing to understand is that every fraction of a degree matters. The greater the warming, the greater the risks to people, ecosystems and societies. Some consequences cannot be reversed on human time scales even if temperatures subsequently fall, including sea-level rise, species loss and melting ice sheets. It is therefore essential to limit both how far and for how long we exceed 1.5°C: to keep peak warming as low as possible and then bring temperatures back down.

“To halt warming, global carbon dioxide emissions must reach net zero, while emissions of methane and other greenhouse gases must fall sharply. Bringing temperatures down after that requires net negative carbon dioxide emissions, alongside continued reductions in methane and other greenhouse gases. In other words, we need to remove more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere than we emit – through carbon dioxide removal (CDR). However, the prospects for doing this at scale are uncertain, so it cannot replace rapid emissions cuts today.”
 

What action and international co-operation will be crucial to limiting warming as much as possible?

“The most fundamental task is to cut carbon dioxide emissions rapidly. Carbon dioxide accumulates in the atmosphere, and cumulative emissions largely determine how much warming ultimately occurs. This requires a shift away from fossil fuels in energy systems, as well as a reduction in deforestation.

“At the same time, cutting methane emissions is one of the most effective ways to slow warming over the next few decades. Methane breaks down in the atmosphere over a little more than a decade and has so far contributed around half a degree of warming. Measures in the oil and gas industry, coal mining, waste management and agriculture also improve air quality, as methane contributes to the formation of ground-level ozone.

“This requires international co-operation, both through the UN climate negotiations and in other forms, such as partnerships between groups of countries. Clear policy instruments are needed, including greenhouse gas emissions pricing, finance and technology transfer to low- and middle-income countries. These can drive rapid technological change and shifts in consumption patterns.”

Sweden: Well placed to lead the way

Filip Johnsson is Professor of Energy Systems in the Division of Energy Technology at Chalmers’ Department of Environmental and Energy Sciences and a member of the Swedish Climate Policy Council. His research examines how energy systems can be transformed to meet climate targets, including through the electrification of industry and transport, and carbon capture and storage.

Which decisions and measures in Sweden could make the greatest difference to emissions over the next five to ten years?
“Sweden is very well placed to make the transition to a climate-neutral society. We have an electricity system that is almost fossil-free and abundant natural resources. But we are also an industrial country with heavy industries that face greater challenges in making the transition. This is where we can make a difference, and there are promising projects at various stages of development. The uncertain global situation has led to some projects being paused or postponed: the transition requires substantial investment, while climate policy also remains uncertain. That is why we need a well-considered industrial policy with a clear direction. In other words, policymakers need a vision for what we want from our industry. With that in place, I believe we can make a substantial difference to emissions.”

How can Sweden help reduce emissions internationally, beyond cutting its own?
 “Precisely because of our favourable conditions, we should be able to lead the way in reducing emissions. Technologies and innovations tend to spread. As well as being at the forefront of the industrial transition, I think we should be able to lead the transition in transport, particularly heavy-duty vehicles, including mobile machinery.

“We have a strong vehicle manufacturing industry, with Volvo Group and Scania already offering electric vehicles. However, these are considerably more expensive to buy than conventional vehicles, which is holding back sales. Yet their ‘total cost of ownership’ – the cost over a vehicle’s lifetime, including purchase, maintenance and operation – is not necessarily higher. This should provide a good basis for Sweden and companies procuring transport services to lead the way. The government can help by supporting infrastructure, including charging facilities. In the current geopolitical circumstances, we clearly have everything to gain from reducing our dependence on fossil fuels.

“We must also take care not to fall behind in the EU’s transition. I think that would be at odds with both our self-image and our industry’s reputation.”

Read more

UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2026

Information about the report in Swedish from the United Nations Regional Information Centre (UNRIC)

SVT’s coverage of the UN’s findings, in Swedish

IPCC Seventh Assessment Report

Swedish Climate Policy Council