Decision-making in the Climate Crisis: New Research Provides Tools for Strategies

Throughout history, the Earth has undergone changes affecting the climate, and sometimes these changes have occurred suddenly. However, we do not fully understand why this has happened, and our current methods of simulating these events are not sufficiently robust. The EU project TiPES (Tipping Points in the Earth System) aims to understand changes caused by human influence to better predict future outcomes.

Patrik Jansson, professor at Computer Science and Engineering, has worked closely with climate researchers in the TiPES project to develop a prototype that helps decision-makers and experts simulate global systems. The method involves ranking different decision steps in a time series based on their importance.

“It involves comparing expected outcomes from the best and worst decisions at each time step. If the outcomes are similar, the step is not crucial, but if they differ dramatically, decision-makers should spend more resources on getting that step right,” explains Patrik.

The Role of Technology in Climate Decisions: Understanding and Guidance for Decision-Makers

The model has been applied to a climate scenario where decision-makers repeatedly face the choice of initiating a "green transition" or delaying it. Climate policy requires difficult trade-offs, and the role of technology lies in helping decision-makers understand and weigh different decisions against each other.

“An immediate action to save the planet could be, for example, deciding to minimize carbon dioxide emissions at any cost. However, voters might not accept, for instance, a slight emission reduction at the expense of a prolonged recession. It is a challenging balance where decision-makers, aided by simulations, can more easily make well-founded decisions,” says Patrik.

Programming Languages Specifically Developed for Climate Experts

Building a theory for optimal decision-making in climate impact research is not a quick task; the work has been ongoing for 10 years. The models are based on computing science and have been developed in collaboration with climate impact experts.

“To simulate different scenarios, instructions expressed in a programming language are required. However, most programming languages are difficult for climate experts to understand. By using so-called domain-specific languages, specially developed for climate experts, programming becomes more accessible to them. These languages focus on hiding irrelevant details and allowing experts to concentrate on the task, thus increasing efficiency.”

Tools using these domain-specific languages can simulate different scenarios and calculate and visualize how these scenarios are valued by various stakeholders.

“By running simulations with different inputs, the tools can provide a good understanding of the trade-offs and decision points that are most important. The goal is to provide decision-makers with accurate and understandable information to make climate-relevant decisions.”

Patrik Jansson emphasizes that the effects of climate decisions will always be uncertain but argues that methods for optimal decision-making in climate impact research could be the key to guiding decision-makers toward a more sustainable future. In the spirit of good research, the results are openly published, allowing other stakeholders to continue the project.

More Information

• Learn more about the EU project TiPES: Tipping Points in the Earth System
• Research article on the project Responsibility Under Uncertainty: Which Climate Decisions Matter Most? | Environmental Modeling & Assessment
• More information and articles on the subject are available on Patrik Jansson's website