The factors effecting risk has to be known in order to give reliable support for decisions regarding tactics and technology. The research project aims to define analysis methods that can evaluate risk posed by different threats for naval ships in the littoral arena. The proposed methods will be based on an understanding of causal relationships from threat to risk. This will give the possibility to quantify risks and prioritize between different safety and security measures.
In the beginning of the project, a review and description of relevant existing methods for safety and security analysis (such as ISM, ISPS, NATO NSC and OR), and analysis of possible extensions to cover measures to address effects of military/paramilitary attack, will be presented such as:
describing the typical situation and missions for naval ships in the littoral arena, and
describing empirical data regarding effects of attacks.
The later part of the project will focus on theory and method development in order to describe causal relationships and how current methods for safety and security analysis could be extended to effectively address risked posed by military/paramilitary attack.
Swedish National Defence College and Swedish Armed Forces