Risk management of groundwater drawdowns in subsidence sensitive areas: Cost-benefit analysis of safety measures in infrastructure projects

Improvement of infrastructure in urban areas generally involves underground construction with tunneling and deep excavations. Construction work in cities founded on soft clay, has to consider land subsidence due to groundwater drawdown. The potential cost of excessive land subsidence in these projects is immense and may increase due to expected climate change conditions. The overall objective of this project is to develop a method for Value of Information Analysis (VOIA) regarding to what extent geotechnical and hydrogeological investigations and other measures are necessary. VOIA is a comparison of the reduced economic risk for inappropriate decisions with the cost for performing investigations and measures that reduce the risks. To estimate economic risks of inappropriate decisions concerning management of land subsidence probabilistic groundwater and subsidence modeling combined with economic valuation of consequences needs to be developed. This trans-disciplinary project will provide novel research on how to integrate existing theory on VOIA with probabilistic modeling and risk assessment of groundwater drawdown and land subsidence. The research is expected to give new insights on how to better predict the risk of harmful subsidence caused by groundwater drainage. More accurate risk predictions will make decision making more efficient, reduce cost of risk reduction measures and improve communication of the risks to stakeholders, authorities and contractors.

Start date 01/01/2012
End date The project is closed: 31/12/2017
​Project leader 
Lars Rosén
Project members 
Lars Rosén
Åsa Fransson
Claes Alén
Lars O Ericsson
Jonas Sundell
Tommy Norberg (Matematiska vetenskaper)
Contact
Lars Rosén

Funded by

  • Formas (Public, Sweden)

Published: Mon 26 Aug 2013. Modified: Thu 31 May 2018